Worldwide air cargo set a query to showed no signs of slowing down in November as volumes recorded a 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth and load factors hit their most life like possible level since April 2022, per potentially the most up-to-date market prognosis by Xeneta.
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Demand rose +10% one year-on-one year in November, fuelled by the endured enhance in e-commerce. This, coupled with finest a marginal +2% growth in air cargo potential, contributed to world air cargo keep charges (official for one month) additionally reaching their most life like possible level in nearly two years at USD 2.90 per kilo, a sixth consecutive month of double-digit one year-on-one year growth.
The air cargo market’s solid month-to-month performance in 2024 has resulted in hopes of a ‘prime of all peaks’ in Q4 from some sectors of the market. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, on the opposite hand, says the industry has done properly to take care of far from it.
“The stay of all peaks must collected no longer be a aim. It ought to be shunned on account of the imbalance it creates between winners and losers. 2024 had the total ingredients to discover loopy prime season charges however the truth we haven’t considered this scrape create is one other impress of the maturity we previously referenced in the enviornment air cargo market. What we witnessed in 2023 became as soon as a mess and a precious lesson. In 2024, we’re seeing these classes set into apply,” he said.
“Of us must collected no longer be dissatisfied. We are witnessing a noteworthy extra grown-up air cargo market basically based totally on larger allocation of sources and better phrases and stipulations between all parties alive to. The stay in 2023, compared, saw a lack of potential and charges going loopy, all on the expense of shippers,” van de Wouw added. “Why would we’re looking out to return there all as soon as more? The provision chain power of a first-rate of all peaks would luxuriate in harm shoppers and set pointless restraints on relationships. It would had been opportunistic for transient-length of time good points.”
Van de Wouw said the closing months of the one year luxuriate in considered the air freight industry “take take care of watch over of its luxuriate in destiny.”
While some observers luxuriate in indicated a muted discontinue-of-one year air cargo market, van de Wouw known as for point of view. He said: “Right here is an air cargo industry that is currently firing on all cylinders, but which is no longer out of take care of watch over. November’s files reveals a market where volumes had been +10% larger than a particularly busy corresponding prime month closing one year, and charges luxuriate in risen, too.
“The closing months of 2024 may presumably well had been very messy all as soon as more for shippers, but we’re no longer hearing that. That’s no longer since the volumes are no longer there, or the flights are no longer corpulent. It is miles because all the pieces, overall, is being managed larger. The industry must collected take a form of credit for that.”
Worldwide air cargo keep charges stay above seasonal charges
This power supply-set a query to imbalance of 2024 pushed the dynamic load ingredient in November to 63% – its most life like possible level in over 30 months. Dynamic load ingredient is Xeneta’s measurement of potential utilisation basically based totally on quantity and weight of cargo flown alongside accessible potential.
This level of set a query to has bolstered the negotiating space of carriers and considered world air cargo keep charges stay above seasonal charges (official for over one month) since gradual November 2023.
In phrases of month-on-month trends, this one year’s prime season, on the opposite hand, has been less intense than closing one year’s. As a result of carriers’ proactive potential management, the enviornment air cargo keep rate elevated finest +12% between early September (the starting up of prime season) and the week ending 1 December, compared to a +25% surge all the blueprint in which by the an analogous length closing one year.
This vogue is particularly evident in the outbound Asia market. As carriers luxuriate in shifted potential to accommodate surging cargo set a query to, November keep charges from Northeast Asia experienced life like growth. Its keep charges to Europe rose by +13% month-on-month to USD 5.09 per kg, while keep charges to North The US elevated +5% to USD 5.20 per kg.
Additionally, keep charges from Southeast Asia showed mixed results, with keep charges to Europe final flat at USD 4.15 per kg and North The US declining -3% to USD 6.05 per kg. The decline in the latter became as soon as pushed by easing volumes, following keep charges exceeding closing one year’s prime season levels since gradual Could presumably presumably also 2024.
Meanwhile, the Transatlantic market experienced extra dramatic freight rate will enhance as cargo potential moved in assorted areas on the discontinue of the summer passenger dash season. Europe to North The US keep charges climbed by +46% from the outdated month to USD 2.72 per kg, which is in incompatibility to the appropriate +9% month-on-month growth all the blueprint in which by the an analogous length a one year ago.
Equally, Europe to Latin The US charges rose by +23% to USD 4.58 per kg. In Brazil, a 5-day embargo in early November in Sao Paulo, South The US’s biggest cargo airport, coupled with ongoing nationwide digital customs delays brought about by Brazilian Customs’ strike since 26 November, may presumably well push air cargo keep charges even larger in December. Shippers are inclined to resort to air freight to take care of far from customs clearance delays.
“For my fragment, I get the air cargo industry ought to be proud it has shunned a ‘prime of all peaks’ because that is the premise for larger market steadiness. I hope this will allow each person to sail into their properly-earned Christmas and Fresh one year holidays with a sense of pride, and it lets in them to sit down support and revel in time with their households and company,” van de Wouw said.
“In 2024, the industry has shown its maturity. We should always wait and stumble on if this holds when the market goes down, but I don’t stumble on that occuring appropriate yet.”
