Worldwide air cargo demand confirmed no signs of slowing down in November as volumes recorded a 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth and cargo components hit their most life like stage since April 2022, in step with the latest market diagnosis by Xeneta.
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Question rose +10% year-on-year in November, fuelled by the continuing boost in e-commerce. This, coupled with handiest a marginal +2% growth in air cargo capability, contributed to world air cargo attach charges (legit for one month) additionally reaching their most life like stage in practically two years at USD 2.90 per kilo, a sixth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth.
The air cargo market’s stable monthly performance in 2024 has resulted in hopes of a ‘height of all peaks’ in Q4 from some sectors of the market. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, however, says the trade has executed successfully to preserve up a ways from it.
“The peak of all peaks might aloof not be a goal. It can aloof be prevented on memoir of the imbalance it creates between winners and losers. 2024 had the total ingredients to gape loopy height season charges however the truth we haven’t viewed this scenario obtain is one other brand of the maturity we previously referenced within the world air cargo market. What we witnessed in 2023 turned into as soon as a big quantity and a purposeful lesson. In 2024, we’re seeing those classes put into observe,” he acknowledged.
“Other folks might aloof not be disappointed. We’re witnessing a noteworthy more grown-up air cargo market in accordance with greater allocation of resources and better terms and instances between all events eager. The peak in 2023, in comparability, saw a lack of capability and charges going loopy, all at the expense of shippers,” van de Wouw added. “Why would we’re searching to return there every other time? The provide chain tension of a height of all peaks would hold disaster consumers and put pointless restraints on relationships. It can hold been opportunistic for transient beneficial properties.”
Van de Wouw acknowledged the final months of the year hold viewed the air freight trade “take hold of alter of its have destiny.”
Whereas some observers hold indicated a muted reside-of-year air cargo market, van de Wouw known as for perspective. He acknowledged: “Here’s an air cargo trade that’s currently firing on all cylinders, but which isn’t out of alter. November’s knowledge shows a market the attach volumes had been +10% elevated than a notably busy corresponding height month final year, and charges hold risen, too.
“The closing months of 2024 might hold been very messy every other time for shippers, but we’re not listening to that. That’s not for the reason that volumes must not there, or the flights must not elephantine. This is because all the things, overall, is being managed greater. The trade might aloof take hold of a form of credit rating for that.”
Worldwide air cargo attach charges reside above seasonal charges
This continual provide-demand imbalance of 2024 pushed the dynamic load element in November to 63% – its most life like stage in over 30 months. Dynamic load element is Xeneta’s size of capability utilisation in accordance with volume and weight of cargo flown alongside obtainable capability.
This stage of demand has strengthened the negotiating attach of carriers and viewed world air cargo attach charges reside above seasonal charges (legit for over one month) since behind November 2023.
When it comes to month-on-month developments, this year’s height season, however, has been less intense than final year’s. Due to carriers’ proactive capability management, the world air cargo attach fee elevated handiest +12% between early September (the initiating of height season) and the week ending 1 December, when compared to a +25% surge at some stage within the same interval final year.
This pattern is notably evident within the outbound Asia market. As carriers hold shifted capability to accommodate surging cargo demand, November attach charges from Northeast Asia skilled moderate growth. Its attach charges to Europe rose by +13% month-on-month to USD 5.09 per kg, while attach charges to North The US elevated +5% to USD 5.20 per kg.
Moreover, attach charges from Southeast Asia confirmed mixed outcomes, with attach charges to Europe last flat at USD 4.15 per kg and North The US declining -3% to USD 6.05 per kg. The decline within the latter turned into as soon as driven by easing volumes, following attach charges exceeding final year’s height season ranges since behind Might simply 2024.
In the period in-between, the Transatlantic market skilled more dramatic freight fee will enhance as cargo capability moved in other areas at the reside of the summer season passenger commute season. Europe to North The US attach charges climbed by +46% from the earlier month to USD 2.72 per kg, which is unlike the true +9% month-on-month growth at some stage within the same interval a year ago.
Equally, Europe to Latin The US charges rose by +23% to USD 4.58 per kg. In Brazil, a five-day embargo in early November in Sao Paulo, South The US’s greatest cargo airport, coupled with ongoing nationwide digital customs delays prompted by Brazilian Customs’ strike since 26 November, might push air cargo attach charges even elevated in December. Shippers are possible to resort to air freight to preserve up a ways from customs clearance delays.
“Individually, I bet the air cargo trade might aloof be proud it has prevented a ‘height of all peaks’ because here is the conclusion for elevated market balance. I hope this might occasionally allow everybody to head into their successfully-earned Christmas and Recent Year holidays with a approach of pride, and it enables them to chill and revel in time with their households and mates,” van de Wouw acknowledged.
“In 2024, the trade has confirmed its maturity. We should always always wait and behold if this holds when the market goes down, but I don’t behold that occuring correct but.”
