World air cargo quiz showed no indicators of slowing down in November as volumes recorded a 13th consecutive month of double-digit development and cargo factors hit their best level since April 2022, primarily based fully mostly on primarily the most modern market diagnosis by Xeneta.
Question rose +10% three hundred and sixty five days-on-three hundred and sixty five days in November, fuelled by the continuing boost in e-commerce. This, coupled with simplest a marginal +2% development in air cargo skill, contributed to world air cargo inform charges (accurate for one month) also reaching their best level in virtually two years at USD 2.90 per kilo, a sixth consecutive month of double-digit three hundred and sixty five days-on-three hundred and sixty five days development.
The air cargo market’s trusty monthly performance in 2024 had led to hopes of a ‘height of all peaks’ in Q4 from some sectors of the market. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, however, says the factitious has completed effectively to lead poke of it.
“The peak of all peaks could well per chance moreover quiet no longer be a goal. It will moreover quiet be avoided in consequence of the imbalance it creates between winners and losers. 2024 had the overall elements to search crazy height season charges however the truth we haven’t seen this space form is one other signal of the maturity we previously referenced within the world air cargo market. What we witnessed in 2023 was once a big quantity and a treasured lesson. In 2024, we’re seeing these classes attach into practice,” he said.
“Other folks could well per chance moreover quiet no longer be disappointed. We are witnessing a grand more grown-up air cargo market in response to better allocation of sources and better terms and conditions between all parties concerned. The peak in 2023, in comparison, saw a shortage of skill and charges going crazy, all on the expense of shippers,” van de Wouw added. “Why would we settle on to return there all any other time? The present chain stress of a height of all peaks would hold be concerned consumers and attach pointless restraints on relationships. It could well per chance per chance well hold been opportunistic for short gains.”
Van de Wouw said the final months of the three hundred and sixty five days hold seen the air freight substitute “take control of its possess destiny.”
While some observers hold indicated a muted discontinuance-of-three hundred and sixty five days air cargo market, van de Wouw known as for perspective.
He said: “Here is an air cargo substitute that’s currently firing on all cylinders, but which is no longer out of control. November’s files reveals a market where volumes hold been +10% elevated than an especially busy corresponding height month final three hundred and sixty five days, and charges hold risen, too.
“The closing months of 2024 could well per chance moreover hold been very messy all any other time for shippers, but we’re no longer listening to that. That’s no longer since the volumes are no longer there, or the flights are no longer paunchy. It is on story of all the pieces, overall, is being managed better. The unreal could well per chance moreover quiet take a quantity of credit for that.”
World air cargo inform charges stay above seasonal charges
This continual present-quiz imbalance of 2024 pushed the dynamic load be mindful November to 63% – its best level in over 30 months. Dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of skill utilisation in response to volume and weight of cargo flown alongside on the market skill.
This level of quiz has reinforced the negotiating inform of carriers and seen world air cargo inform charges stay above seasonal charges (accurate for over one month) since late November 2023.
By attain of month-on-month trends, this three hundred and sixty five days’s height season, however, has been much less intense than final three hundred and sixty five days’s. Thanks to carriers’ proactive skill management, the world air cargo inform price elevated simplest +12% between early September (the launch of height season) and the week ending 1 December, in comparison with a +25% surge all during the identical length final three hundred and sixty five days
This pattern is terribly evident within the outbound Asia market. As carriers hold shifted skill to accommodate surging cargo quiz, November inform charges from Northeast Asia experienced lifelike development. Its inform charges to Europe rose by +13% month-on-month to USD 5.09 per kg, while inform charges to North America elevated +5% to USD 5.20 per kg.
Additionally, inform charges from Southeast Asia showed blended outcomes, with inform charges to Europe ideal flat at USD 4.15 per kg and North America declining -3% to USD 6.05 per kg. The decline within the latter was once pushed by easing volumes, following inform charges exceeding final three hundred and sixty five days’s height season ranges since late May per chance per chance per chance per chance also 2024.
In the meantime, the Transatlantic market experienced more dramatic freight price increases as cargo skill moved in completely different locations on the discontinuance of the summer season passenger trek season. Europe to North America inform charges climbed by +46% from the earlier month to USD 2.72 per kg, which is unlike the appropriate +9% month-on-month development all during the identical length a three hundred and sixty five days ago.
In the same model, Europe to Latin America charges rose by +23% to USD 4.58 per kg. In Brazil, a five-day embargo in early November in Sao Paulo, South America’s highest cargo airport, coupled with ongoing nationwide digital customs delays attributable to Brazilian Customs’ strike since 26 November, could well per chance moreover push air cargo inform charges even elevated in December. Shippers are likely to resort to air freight to lead poke of customs clearance delays.
“For my piece, I have confidence the air cargo substitute could well per chance moreover quiet be proud it has avoided a ‘height of all peaks’ on story of here’s the foundation for greater market balance. I hope this can enable each person to head into their effectively-earned Christmas and Original three hundred and sixty five days holidays with a diagram of enjoyment, and it lets in them to sit down down relief and revel in time with their households and friends,” van de Wouw said.
“In 2024, the factitious has proven its maturity. We must at all times wait and search if this holds when the market goes down, but I don’t search that going on acceptable yet.”
